Random Thoughts From an Unarmed Accountant

Fairness, Tax and Uni

2010-07-17T11:14:00.001-07:00

This my first post in over a year, so sorry for the interruption, but I want to start to do this again more regularly.

The coalition has been interesting to watch in its first few months of government and the interactions between the parties as well as the new policy agendas have intrigued me. I was however initially opposed to the coalition and there are certain areas I disagree with.

As you can guess from the name of the post I will address one now:

Vince Cables proposed graduate tax.

As an old teacher once said,

"If your solution to a problem is to propose a tax, you do not understand the problem"

Now I must declare an interest here I am a graduate, therefore I have an interest in this topic, however I have already paid for my tuition through student fees I also currently have a student debt of around £13,500. If I am to pay a surcharge on to the 40% tax I already pay on my earnings (20% Income Tax, 11% NI, 9% student loan repayaments) it will be very difficult for me to live.

However I have already paid so the tax does not affect me. If I have to pay this tax as well, I would have to find some way of avoiding or evading it.

This tax does not solve the problem our university system faces - too many 18 years old believe it is there right to go to uni. Take this BBC headline

University "denied to thousands" BBC News 16th July

This headline sounds extreme to be as though people as being denied a right

Free Speech "denied to thousands" or Primary education "denied to thousands", is a sensible headline. University education is not a right

I am going to return to this topic over the next week adding my own proposals for higher education and my fundamental disagreements with the policy.

Fairness and Tax

2010-07-17T11:14:00.000-07:00

I remember a quote from an old teacher.

Is there one answer?

2009-03-11T13:00:00.000-07:00

I believe the definition of a difficulty questions is the ability to have two answer and believe in them both. This is not defining difficulty as double-think, but defining maturity as duality. There are very few situations which are black and white.

The story about the protest against the returning soldiers is an perfect illustration of this.

Is freedom of speech more important than a celebration of returing heroes.

As always there is a middle ground, there is a right to protest, but limits to free speech.

Freedom of speech does not extend to shouting fire in a crowded room.

Serendipity

2009-03-10T11:38:00.000-07:00

I am a great believer in coincidences having explanations which are not explainable.

There are some days when events make a decision the right one. Yesterday was one of them.

After deciding to blog again I had two conversations which I wanted to share.

The first was with the student loans company. They wanted some information about me on a paper form.

Me "That's not very secure, is there an Internet form or something?"
SLC "Are you worried about what we will do with the information?"
Me "No I am worried you will lose it"
SLC "Well, you don't have to put your NI number on the form"
Me "You've already printed it on there"
SLC "Fill in the form and send it in"

Secondly I went to Barclays to increase my overdraft. I was turned down. For the perplexing reason of

"You demonstratively do not need any more on your overdraft"

I promptly went home, went overdrawn and will return again in two weeks massively in debt to request again.

Promoting sensible banking my arse. In debt and loving it.

I'm Back

2009-03-09T05:21:00.000-07:00

Been a busy few months, but starting next week I will begin to post again regularly.

I would like to thank the "Anonymous" for commenting on my last post, he made me see what ignorance and stupidity there is to combat out there on the web.

Thanks "Anonymous", your cowardly rantings made me want to start again.

Fisking John Prescott

2008-12-23T14:32:00.000-08:00

Labourhome published an article by John Prescott berating Barclays Bank. I like John, he was always annoying, but you could sense he believed in what he said, but there was much empty rhetoric and flawed argument in his article, I decided to reply line by line to him.

This Christmas 340 people face losing their jobs in my Hull constituency. Whilst this sadly isn’t uncommon across the country at the moment, what’s made me very angry is that is was entirely preventable and the result of a bank’s greed.

Or it could be something to do with the massive recession caused by Labour's borrowing and spending.

Atlas Holiday Homes has a long and proud history – a successful firm that for 30 years had a credit facility with Barclays.
That was until the bank decided to take it away even though the company had a full order book way into March next year.

Order books mean nothing in the present climate. It is whether customers can pay or still intend to purchase. A bank will not remove credit unless it has a good reason. Barclays have increased lending as a whole to small businesses. I cannot comment on this particular case, but the whole sector is in a bad way. Only today BA slashed the prices of flights and Thomas Cook decreased places for next year's holidays.

Which is why I was furious to hear Barclays Chief Executive John Varley tell the BBC that firms and households will have to wait another two years before bank lending goes back to normal.

Great response anger at a man who tells the truth.

Well it's a damn good thing we didn't wait up to two years to bail out the banking sector to the tune of £37b, isn’t it?

Barclays did not accept a penny of that money. It is deliberately misleading to mention it.

That’s why I started my Facebook campaign ‘No Ifs No Buts – Pass on the Cut’ to pressure the banks to pass on the interest rate cuts in full for customers and businesses.
Many of these banks were bailed out by this Government but Barclays preferred to sort out their own refinancing package with Abu Dhabi and Qatari investors.
Mr Varley said at the time: “Our ability to do what our shareholders would expect of us would be compromised if Barclays was nationalized.”
Which means they wanted to carry on giving out healthy dividends and wallet-busting bonuses. Last year, they posted profits of £7 billion.

I am a Barclays shareholder and got a total dividend of £84 last year. Real fat cat territory. Dividends are small amounts of cash to people like me and enough money to the institutional investors to fund pensions.

But on 30 August 2007, Barclays was forced to borrow £1.6bn from the Bank of England sterling standby facility, which is made available as a last-resort when banks are unable to settle their debts to other banks at the end of daily trading.

This was caused by a technical error in the interbank computing system. When it was fixed at 11:30 that night Barclays had to react quickly. It was repaid the next day.

Yes we bailed out Barclays by giving them a credit facility! And what did Mr Varley get last year? A bonus of £1.45 million whilst Barclay’s President got ten times as much - £14.8m
Atlas Holiday Homes can’t wait two years for banks to recapitalize, Mr Varley. They’ll go under if you uphold this ridiculous and shortsighted decision.

This decision is not short sighted. We need to decrease our debt. Careless lending by banks helped caused this crisis. It would be ridiculous to be lending at that rate now!

And you wonder why banks are facing a PR crisis? It’s not a case of saying sorry and admitting to the sins of the past. It’s about doing what is morally and economically right and passing on the interest cuts in full and increasing lending.

No. It is about what is doing in the interest of their shareholders. PR means people are more likely to bank with them, which is in my interest. I cannot give a fig who they end to as long as they act in my interest. That is what is right and this misunderstanding is what is wrong with John Prescott and all the other Old Labourites who view the crisis as an excuse for nationalisation.

This Monday, Atlas will meet with the administrators and the council to see what can be done. All three Hull MPs have also written to Peter Mandelson to make him aware of the situation and ask him for help.
So in the spirit of Xmas I call on you Mr Varley and Barclays to do the decent thing and save Atlas, give them back their credit facility and make 340 Hull families very happy.
So No Ifs, No Buts – get lending!
You can join our No Ifs, No Buts, Pass on the Cut facebook group here - http://www.facebook.com/group.php?gid=41481071905

Stop lending! That was the problem. You do not cure an addict by giving them unlimited access to their addiction. Until we as the populace accept we are in too much debt we will never get out of it. Acceptance is the first step to recovery.

Spotted While Shopping

2008-12-21T15:01:00.000-08:00

I was able to finally finish my Christmas shopping yesterday. There were two items which caught my eye.

A Christmas Tree which you can stand upside down in Heelas.

A Christmas card for "My Son and his Boyfriend" in Clintons.

Brightens up the day doesn't it.

Damian Green

2008-12-15T14:38:00.000-08:00

One of the scariest things about the Damian Green affair is that there has been a bigger public uproar about the voting on Strictly Come Dancing then about his arrest.

I can't forgot this thought.

Sales Fever

2008-12-07T10:12:00.001-08:00

Found this deal on Amazon. I may wait a bit longer till I buy.

Calvin and Hobbes

2008-12-06T03:16:00.000-08:00

I found this comic a few weeks ago, and decided to republish it on its 20th anniversary, unfortunately the Express beat me to it a few days ago, but hey.

It is a "Calvin and Hobbes" originally drawn by Bill Watterson. Somehow it still seems pertinent.

Damian Green

2008-11-30T15:08:00.000-08:00

I have only one think to say about the Damian Green affair.

What has Damian done wrong?

PS He is an Old Redingensians like me. There are another two old boys in the Shadow Cabinet and the leader of the Lib Dems in the House of LOrds is one as well. Move over Eton!

Atlas Shrugged - Part 1

2008-11-30T14:58:00.000-08:00

I have recently finished reading the book by Ayn Rand. I have really enjoyed this book and at 1158 pages I needed to have been able to finish it.

This book was so thought provoking I just have to share my thoughts and feelings on it, and to be honest that is why I started this blog.

This book was recommended to me by someone in the office (and if they are reading this can I have Animal Farm back at some stage), but it was one I had heard of and was interested in reading at some stage, I just needed a push to do it.

I am going to split my analysis of the book into three parts I will hopefully publish over the next week or two (exams permitting).

50% Female

2008-11-27T12:23:00.000-08:00

Found a fun widget.

PS After doing this blog it went up to 53% female. That'll teach me.

I find it Offensive too

2008-11-26T13:01:00.000-08:00

Now I know this will open me to a torrent of abuse, but that is why I have comment moderation.

There is a story today about not using slang terms to talk to the elderly as they find it offensive. I fully admit I dislike being called mate by anyone I do not know. As for dearie and love I find them too familar to be used by shop staff and random call center employees. Lover, I quite like like term as it is the traditional Bristo greeting, but takes a while to get used to.

I think it is rude and condensending to use these terms. Use my name if you know it, if not ask. I will not be offended, it will give me a chance to ask yours.

TV Picks - IT Crowd

2008-11-25T13:17:00.000-08:00

One of the funniest programs on TV, The IT Crowd, won an International Emmy last night. I really enjoy this program it has all the elements of classic comedy - believable characters, farce, familar settings, lots of fun and a bit of intelligence.

Do watch it, it is hilarious.

Lets keep up the speculation

2008-11-23T11:43:00.001-08:00

Remember last September, Gordon Brown was on top form, solving crisis, announcing policy, he bestrode the political scene like a god. 9 months he lost Labour's 25th safest seat in a byelection. What started this switch in opinion was when he called off the uncalled election.

Now things are beginning to look the same. The pre-budget report tomorrow will look be populist and Brown's handling of the banking crisis means it looks good for an early election.

I want to ruin his party. The way I think we can it is by increasing election speculation, move the party onto an election footing, let it be known we expect an election in April, select the candidates, stoke the flames. Then when Brown has to respond to the speculation we are creating, it will be easy to spin it as bottling another election.

Or we could speak with one voice, unite behind Osborne and start attacking Labours' mismanagement of the economy for 11 years. Ken Clarke will not be Chancellor again, get used to it.

CF Elections

2008-11-18T14:58:00.000-08:00

I have just read the press release from the NME.

This strikes at the heart of the problems of CF, far too many careerists, far too much emphasis on keeping out the membership, far too little thought and far too little democracy.

You cannot just vote to extend your term in office like this. It is the reason why CF is broken, it is why young activists do not want to get involved with CF, but stick to associations. It is all well and good talking about more NUS delegates, but when we are as sickeningly undemocratic as they are with their appointed delegates or pitiful turnouts (Bristol's turnout for NUS was less than 4%). I do not want to see the CF continue like this nationally.

CF is supposed to be about representing our views to the national party and giving us an equal voice. CF is failing a nationally, but locally we are successful.

We must strengthen locally, abandon the silly plan for regional chairman, retain the area chairman, hold the elections sooner if they will conflict with other elections.

Micheal Rock if you believe in your plans put them to us in a vote. If not stop trying to impose them.

6 Things you never knew about me

2008-11-18T14:43:00.000-08:00

Got tagged in an Internet meme thingy by Laura. As I number of people from work now read this blog (or pretend to, I'm not sure which) work tomorrow could be quite interesting.

First, the rules:
1. Link to the person who tagged you.
2. Post the rules on your blog.
3. Write six random things about yourself.
4. Tag six people at the end of your post and link to them.
5. Let each person know they’ve been tagged and leave a comment on their blog
6. Let the tagger know when your entry is up

Six things you didn't know about me:
1, Until I was about 7 I thought Christmas day was about me as it was the day I was born.
2, I do not believe in, but I do have my suspicions about demons and the supernatural.
3, I used to hate wearing glasses so much I would break mine deliberately.
4, I am enjoy poetry, but can't write it.
5, I have a fear of going upside down when I am not in control. (I refer to it as invertigo)
6, I am too boring to have more than 5 secrets.

Unfortunately everyone I know with a blog who may be interested in this has already been tagged, so I put out the challenge to my colleagues on this one. Post in the comments if you feel up to it!

Pay Attention 007

2008-11-16T13:12:00.001-08:00

I saw the new Bond film on Wednesday. I did not enjoy the last film, I spent all the time thinking - this is not Bond, where is the humour, the gadgets, the fun. Daniel Craig took the role seriously, it didn't work. Pierce Brosnan had fun, he knew what Bond was about in a way Bourne-watching Daniel Craig does not

I saw Quantum with a sense of trepidation. My dreads were confirmed in the first few minutes a spectacular car chase, which left me feeling flat for two reasons. Firstly, if Q was there we would have had rockets and invisibility and Bond would be driving the car with his ipod from Wales. Secondly, they broke the rules, innocent people died. The rule is that people involved die, not random people in the crowd or police officers.

They broke the rules that was wrong. Also who the hell builds hydrogen tanks into the wall of a hotel?

PS If it wasn't Bond it would have been an excellent film, as it was I expected Bond and did not receive it.

European Double Standards

2008-11-10T14:14:00.000-08:00

Once again the EU's accounts have not been arrpoved by the auditors. Although the opinion is now unqualified and an improvement over the last few years.

I just wonder what would happen if any major company got this level of audit opinion. Shareholders would sell up, the company would go bankrupt or be forced to change.

What a pity we do not have that kind of power over the EU public servants.

He Will Disappoint

2008-11-09T12:36:00.000-08:00

Have still not got over the jubilation on the BBC over Obama victory. We are entering an new Golden Age.

I wouldn't mind if the BBC just declared they love Obama and be done with it, as opposed to trying to convince everyone they are impartial. Leading with Obama news, refusing to report on his dodgy connections with terrorist and preachers and attacking Clinton and McCain.

The only thing that makes this bearable is the knowledge that he will disappoint. He is an American President he must act in America's interest, he will disappoint his legions of European fans when he does. I am not happy about this, hope destroyed leads to cynicism and disengagement.

I hope he doesn't, but I am ready for when he does, I hope his fans are as well.

Glenrothes

2008-11-06T13:16:00.000-08:00

Forgot there is a by-election today.

I want a Labour loss - please vote SNP. I would be happy with 0 Tory votes as long as they all switch to the SNP.

Hope this is counted quicker than Glasgow East.

Fashion Advice

2008-11-04T17:30:00.000-08:00

Don't worry this is not advice from me.

Saw this in the Mail.

Don't see what is special about fashion advice from your employers. I got a class on how to dress when I started with my job. Dressing appropiately is vital and also very to do difficult in your first proper job.

McCain: The Only Choice

2008-11-02T14:19:00.000-08:00

I support McCain. I cannot hide this, I do not want to hide this and feel annoyed that some people feel I should.

I was first interested by McCain's personal story. Son of an Admiral, captured in Vietnam, hideously tortured, yet refused to go home before his comrades who had been captured earlier than him. His life story demonstrated three key qualities grit, bravery and most importantly honour.

McCain is also the best of the speakers in this election. When he speaks he not only engages the audience, but he says more than vague and simple platitudes, he has substance - a message and a plan, to sort out America's problem and more importantly the idea as to what these problems actually are.

The selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate was the event of the election, an instant media event, a candidate with wit and charm, as well as practical executive experience, something all other candidates lacked.

Sarah Palin and John McCain represent the real America, not the liberal minorities on the West and East coasts, but the hardworking, religious people who believe in family and other traditional values. These are the people who "cling to guns and religion", and are permanently proudly of their country not just when they are elevated to a position would not even dream of. The middle America, upon whom the world relies and is the American Dream incarnate, this is where elections are won and lost.

Internationally I think John McCain will be better for the world, he can bring a steel to world politics, an experience and an almost innate ability to pick winning strategies, demonstrated when he backed the Iraq surge whose success was doubted, but whose success has made the Iraqi people safer.

I want John McCain to win, not just because I share his ideology, his faith in America, but I believe he can make us safer and that is what I want from a US president.

I'm Chris Smith and I approve this message.

Dig Upwards!

2008-11-02T12:09:00.000-08:00

The above is a bit of an in-joke between me and my university friends. When one of said something stupid and tried to talk our way out of it, the rest of the group would call out "dig upward" to stop him.

It comes from the old saying "when in a hole stop digging" and is one of the most pragmatic things you can do.

This is why I am so bemused by the government's response to the credit crisis. As far as I can tell they think the answer is:

Encourage banks to lend at 2007 levels
Borrow excessive amounts of money to increase government spending

Why is the solution to the problem of banks lending too much and government spending and borrowing too much the same the actions.

Following this Vince Cable has been having a go at Barclays because they want to "protect their commercial independence", I am a Barclays share holder. I am proud that my bank has resisted the government's shilling.

I am annoyed that people believe the solution for Barclays is government money, yet in the same article the BBC admit that profits are better than last year, if this is not proof that the bank is fundamentally sound I do not know what is.

The banks should not be owned by the government. The banks control and fund the economy having them under state control means the government controls free enterprise and we all suffer. Politicians focus on the next election and ignore the long term good for the economy.

If Gordon Brown was truly working in our interest, he would hav slashed spending in 2002 instead of borrowing. He did not he borrowed and six years later we are suffering the consquences.

Dig Upwards Gordon. Dig Upwards.

Principles vs Rules - Part 2

2008-10-29T12:47:00.000-07:00

It's quite sad, but since I have begin my training to be an accountant I have been noticing how systems are regulated. Also the power regulators require in order to effectively regulate.

The most effective regulatory framework is one which empowers the inspectors, at the expense of the inspectee. This is why a rules based approach will always be inferior to a principles approach.

If a company meets the rules laid down, then the regulator has no power to pursue them, but if principles are used the company must ensure their interpretation matches that of the regulatory.

In short rules empower the inspectee, principles the inspector.

I wonder which system Gordon Brown will choose at the end of the crisis.

Good Bless Auntie

2008-10-27T10:00:00.000-07:00

From the beeb:

"Gay unions are statistically less likely to produce children"

Wokingham CF's first event

2008-10-26T15:39:00.000-07:00

My apologise for this last week. I have had my first two ACA exams.

I passed both so it was worth the work, but it was an exhausting few weeks.

To make up for it this week Wokingham CF are holding their first event this week.

On Thursday we will be at the Queen's Head in Wokingham from 7:30, please come along and join us.

(As if you need more incentive I should say Wokingham Conservatives have given us a little bit of money for behind the bar)

My Greatest Achievement

2008-10-20T14:19:00.000-07:00

This year has been an interesting one for me, I have achieved many things.

I have graduated from university.
I got my first proper job.
I now own a car and an associated debt.
I assisted in the setting up of a CF branch.
I even started blogging.

But my greatest achievement this year ironically took place last year, it just took me 10 months to notice.

I have achieved something that puts at the very pinnacle of humanity. An elite and select group of individuals who are recognised for this achievement everywhere they go. All men wonder at how they did it.

Yes that's right I was fired by McDonald's.

And here's the really amusing part I have now been fired twice!

Now I don't want to talk smack about my former employer, but anyone who has ever worked or been into a McDonald's (or just been within 500 yards) of one will tell this is quite an achievement.

I admit being fired once shows my character, being rehired and refired for the same problem shows theirs as well.

I'm thinking of getting a certificate made up.

My Moneys on McCain

2008-10-19T15:39:00.000-07:00

Noticed Tom Harris is already making the excuses in case Obama loses.

Apparently if you do not vote for Obama you are a racist, not someone unimpressed by his total lack of experience, ideas or achievements.

If you do not vote for Obama's you condone slavery, not supporting McCain, a man who has fought and experienced terrible torture for his country, a man who has ideas and ways of achieving them, a man whose political career was not entirely built on being able to make a good speech.

This makes me very angry, resorting to labeeling people just because they disagree with you in dangerous. You risk alienating communities and destroying trust. You only have to look at the progress of the BNP over the last few years to realise playing the race card in this way is not only stupid, but also reckless and dangerous.

I salute Nick Webb, we disagree over the US presidential election, but he respected my decision to back McCain, no matter how much he disagreed with it. He did not just tar me as a racist and be done with it.

Enviro-Con

2008-10-19T04:04:00.000-07:00

Been listening to the news from the EU and the the UK, about the reduction in carbon emissions. While I think we should conserve oil and reduce energy usage, it is a valid means of saving money, I, like the majority of the population, am unconvinced by the this climate change scare-mongering.

My mind has turned to how to deal with the environmental campaigners. While as an engineer I can argue the science, there are so many conflicting reports this is becoming futile and dangerous. (Not to mention most of the campaigners do not understand the science themselves.)

There is one solution, a derogatory nickname. The left has labelled us as neo-con, Thatcherite and Tory, it's our turn.

My suggestion is enviro-con - environmental conservative (or con-artist if you feel unkind). We need to get this word into the mainstream.

No longer Greenpeace, but an enviro-con campaign group.
No longer a climate change professor, but a leading enviro-con architect.

PS I realise how immature it is to resort to "name calling", but it works when the word is widely accepted and has negative connotations.

Jinx

2008-10-18T15:48:00.000-07:00

Now on my third sat nav in 2 months. I got the first as I though I would need to navigate to strange places. So the sat nav was a necessity. Interestingly my ipod died on the same day I got the first sat nav, I don't think I was paying it enough attention. I should probably replace it, but don't want to risk it (and don't have the cash).

The problems with the garmin reached a head this week after the sat nav died less than 100 years from my home and had to navigate the rest of the way to Birmingham by guesswork! Anyone who has had me navigate for them will realise it is a massive achievement I did not end up in Wales or another country by accident. I just followed the all the way.

I am trying a different brand. Will update during the week on my progress.

Quick Note

2008-10-13T15:09:00.000-07:00

Just heard Geoffrey Robinson (former paymaster general until forces to quit in one of the Mandelson scandals) on Newsnight (about 35 minutes in) blaming the auditors for the banking crisis.

As a business man he should know better. This is a prime example of the "expectations gap" the difference between what the public think auditors do and what we actually do.

Auditors are there to ensure that the financial statements are "free from material misstatement" and give a "true and fair view" of the financial position of the company.

It is the duty of management to look for fraud NOT the auditors (unless of course the fraud is material).

Auditors CANNOT recommend a change to the way a business operates this would mean auditors taking a management role within a company, this would be a conflict of interest.

We are here to ensure the statements are accurate enough that the differences between the Financial Statements and the true position will not influence the decisions of the investors.

Sorry to get protective, but this is my profession and education about the role of auditors is vital to understand the strengths and limitations of our reports.

An Accidental Precedent

2008-10-13T11:42:00.000-07:00

A physics teacher once asked the question. What is the strongest law known to man? Being a physics class we answered with Newton2, thermodynamics, Ohms and many others. The teacher said we were all wrong and said the most powerful law known to man is the law of unintended consequences. This stuck with me for two reasons, firstly it was my first encounter with the mixture of physics and philosophy which is modern scientific endeavour and secondly because it seemed profoundly right.

This is why I am so scared of what the government has done with the Icelandic banking assets. By freezing them the government has created a precedent, now with a major UK banks likely to go before the crisis ends we have made it very easy for other governments to hold the UK to ransom by doing the same to our banks.

The only way we can survive this crisis is by international cooperation, not by short-sighted national interest. Who knows maybe from the crisis we will begin to see true international cooperation and not just an economic hegemony.

Nationalisation of the Banks

2008-10-12T11:33:00.000-07:00

If Peston is to be believed (and I am non-committal on this), the government is about to take a large stake in our banks and has bullied at least one bank - Barclays - into making a larger request than the management wanted.

Anyone disagree with this paraphrasing from Atlas Shrugged:

"Why don't you take over my mills and be done with it", the banks asked, the minister reacted with "a jolt of genuine horror" and cries of "Oh no!", "We wouldn't think of it", and "We stand for free enterprise!"

And we are back to the 70's, at least the TV is better this time around.

The Bailout

2008-10-11T14:41:00.001-07:00

I have been watching the effect of the £500bn bailout this week with interest. There seems to be a consensus that it is the right thing to do. It is a plan with widespread support from all parties, the finance industry and many professional economists.

I think it is a terrible plan and a bad idea. The sheer scale terrifies me. This sort of plan is a carpet bombing approach to a crisis where a surgical strike would have been more appropriate. The problem is not money it is the fact that money is not moving, the only part of the plan I welcome is the cheaper guarantee for interbank lending which will hopefully get the money moving.

I have said it before the problem is confidence and being told to sort out the problem requires a sum roughly equivalent to a third of the economy destroys the confidence I had.

The £500bn will have to be paid for and my generation will be the ones to pay it. Borrowing is just deferred taxation, it will have to be paid sometime and in 10 years I will be paying it (as well as for the NHS and pensions and whatever else this government wants to fund).

I am also afraid that it has destroyed the argument for low tax for the general population. Now government spending is actively measured in £100s of billions, what chance do the prudent among us have to argue that it was this profligarate spending and massive debts the government ran up which are partly to blame for the crisis.

This is not money the government has magicked into existence it will destroy us for decades and destroy arguments for prudent spending and restraint in public spending for just as long.

I love this country, but I feel as though I am watching her die, but as they say the darkest hour is just before dawn.

People Who Deserve to be Punished (Part 2)

2008-10-05T12:36:00.000-07:00

Another in my short series of everyday people who annoy me somehow.

Freshers. This is pure jealousy, I was out on Friday night in Reading. There were hundreds of student. This is the first time in four years I was not among them. This was the point it hit me.

I was no longer a student.

There were two ways I could handle this. Maturely realise I have entered a new phase in my life or I could get drunk and stave of dealing with this properly for another year.

I like to think I did both.

Blogging will be lgiht this week I have to go to Watford and back each day.

Ministry for Silly Walks

2008-10-03T10:17:00.000-07:00

I notice with annoyance that the cult of Climate Change has achieved a cabinet position. While I agree with the addition of an Energy Secretary, this is vital if we are going to get the Nuclear and Coal power stations we required.

The fact the minister is dual mandated as climate change and energy means he will be intrinsically biased. This means more windmills and not enough tidal, wave or hydro.

I also wonder why he has chosen climate change to add climate change when the scientific community still does not agree if it is happening and the general population are unconvinced at best and cynical at worst.

Typical GB he could have chosen to take the first steps to solve our massive energy deficit instead he has gone for PC grandstanding and doomed us all.

How to make Tax Unpopular

2008-10-02T14:47:00.000-07:00

I got my first proper paycheck on Monday. I noticed with shock that the government had taken 31%. My first thought about this was annoyance, then after a few minutes it was acceptance.

My reaction annoyed me, why was I accepting it?

Why was 1.7% of my pay going to the government to pay for them to tax me!

Why was I working a day and a half to pay for social security for people who don't work and for a pension I won't receive!

I begin thinking about how to change my reaction from acceptance to revolt. To campaign for a smaller government instead of meekly accepting its bloated nature. So here is another policy idea.

Get rid of PAYE. If we had to pay tax as a lump sum we would realise just how much we pay and we could see what the individual could do with it instead. There would be a massive pressure from the middle classes to decrease government spending and hence decrease the money they have to actively hand over the government.

The only way to decrease tax is to become aware of how much we actually pay.

Ref - Wikipedia UK Budget 2008

Demutualisation and the BBC

2008-09-30T14:28:00.000-07:00

BBC Article

I once read a definition of propaganda as "long on emotion and short on fact".

This is despicable even from the BBC, they did mention what has really happened -

"
The reason the demutualised societies have gone has been due to investors having panic attacks, It has been a self-fulfilling, cataclysmic spiral into the abyss. "

The article uses highly emotional language and common phrases "all the rage" , "the dam burst"

As well as deliberately blaming the Conservatives while not mentioning the disgraceful way the Labour Party has confused the regulation of the city, the Basel 2 regulations and the slow reaction of the BoE to the crisis last summer.

The Credit Crunch has been described as a crisis of confidence. It is not, it is a crisis of government and regulation which has destroyed the confidence of the population in the banks.

What I want from the conference

2008-09-28T16:00:00.000-07:00

Like most years I will not be attending conference. I think the idea of a five day long meeting is pointless and does not fit in with my lifestyle (also I couldn't get the holiday). I hope to go next year, but shall see.

What I want from the conference is a reason I can give to people to vote Tory other than get rid of Brown. Although I understand the old maxim - oppoisition do not win elections governments win them. I want us to be able to set out our plans and give not waste the time we have in government if we can get it. All this feels a bit confessional so I should admit.

Hi name is Chris. I am a policy addict. I just need a dealer.

Principles vs Rules

2008-09-22T15:08:00.000-07:00

I have just been watching Newsnight and heard Jeremy Paxman discussing how the UK is changing to a rules based accounting format from our current principles based approach. The implication is that the American system of rules is better and will prevent the kind collapse we have been witnessing recently.

Put simply a principles based means obeying a spirit while a rules based approach means obeying a law. If we take the theme of independence we can see how this works in practice. Under a rules based approach, you need to ensure you comply with a checklist to make sure you are independent, with the onus being on the authorities to make sure rules are up to date. While with principles the onus is on you to ensure you meet the key principle of being "independent in mind and appearance". A simpler system which is less open to fraud and abuse, due to the professional bodies enforcing these behaviours

I see four major faults with Paxman's assertion.

1, The US is moving away from a rules based approach to principles. If this approach is so good why are the Americans changing?

2, Rules can be got round by clever legal minds as was evidenced by Enron and Worldcom.

3, Principles makes compliance the duty of the company, while rules makes it the duty of the regulator to ensure they are complying.

4, Rules cannot cover every eventuality an in a market as varied and complex as finance the principles based approach allows companies to be more flexible in assessing risk.

Frankly this idea is silly and will be a knee jerk reaction to increase regulation.
Regulation is not what the market needs. What the finance section needs is confidence and that will not come with a change of rules

Work-Life Balance

2008-09-21T13:53:00.000-07:00

For the first time ever i have been having to seriously think about the above phrase means and how to use it practically. While I have plans, schedules and lists I have also been struck by a single thought.

Why is it not life-work balance?

Seriously is this not symptomatic of the problem we face with our lives. I have work, exams, travel, CF and a social life. I will also have ulcers and a stress medication prescription soon.

At lunch one day this week we were discussing who would be willing to look after children while their partner works. Shockingly a greater proportion of men were willing to do it than the woman.

Has feminism made being a stay at home husband acceptable? Or it is that woman have been told they can have it all and men are be better at achieving this elusive balance?

I do not know, I also do not know what my own reaction will be. I am just glad these options are becoming open.

Dear God

2008-09-17T12:49:00.000-07:00

Watching the market I am glad I entered the job this year and did not defer. The story of the new starter fired on his first day at Lehman Brothers, the job losses at the banks. All this uncertainty if feeding into the "real economy" I wouldn't be surprised if the professional services firms cut their new jobs.

This would mean those who leave uni this year will have 3 years of £3k tuition and a very difficult job market to enter. Enough of the bad news however, if I could afford to I have certain areas I would buy shares in now.

Renewable energy - massive gains in the next 10 to 20 years. I would research the technical specs of the company first though!

Banks - all under valued, but expect big losses on them before they improve.

Oil companies - I reckon oil will peak at about $175-225 sometime next in about February and March, but they are all good longterm bets.

Good Luck to everyone looking for a job, we are in for a rough 2 years.

My Schedule

2008-09-14T14:44:00.001-07:00

Now I am back from my course (lots of fun) and have started my first proper job I have realised just how little time I have. I have two weeks of college starting tomorrow, then go on another course before actually starting to earn money for my new company. (I should really say thanks!) I will try to keep up the blogging.

This is post is to apologise to all the other bloggers who have full time jobs, volunteer, do political stuff and manage a social life I did not realise just how tough it is and I have only been at it for a week!

Thank-you for blogging I do enjoy reading them all and any advice?

Re: Republicans

2008-09-14T14:05:00.000-07:00

Ok, this has taken a while mainly due to my laziness and busy schedule, but here is my response to Nick’s response to my response to Nick's initial blog post about the US elections.

"good government needs to be spending low amounts wisely"

I agree with Nicks assertion that a government should spend wisely, but in America the majority of spending is done by individual states. Therefore a restriction on national spending would allow the government to spend wisely on defence, foreign policy and national coordination while leaving the states free to do education, healthcare and other areas, which are more sensibly handled at a local level. I also believe this system of allowing local councils to dictate their spending would work in the UK and allow for better and lower spending

"I hear him talking about boosting healthcare provision"

You are also probably aware of my position that the NHS in its current form is due to an aging population unsustainable and that we need to make decisions in the next parliament what to do about it. The fact that a presidential candidate is considering introducing a similar system shows me how out of touch he is.

"Not only do the British Conservative Party not equate to the Republicans, they are in reality closer to the Democrats"

You also say Tories are closer to Democrats, I disagree with this. The Democrats are anti-free trade, the Conservative party committed to the free market, how we can be similar when we disagree with on our fundamental tenets I do not understand. I believe considering the globalization we are experiencing a protectionist party is dangerous and

I agree with Nick about the Iraq War, we were lied to this issue is why I became an active Conservative to destroy the party which played politics with our troops (demonstrated again when Brown visited our boys during the party conference last year).

"more military resources on hand to deal with the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina"

I think you are indulging in fantasy about Osama being captured, I also think military resources and Katrina is missing the point. The resources were there, just mismanaged on the ground. Think about those school buses allowed to flood or battalions not allowed to deploy because the Mayor could not be found to give permission to enter the city. New Orleans has not been rebuilt as the people have not returned, but have settled elsewhere to feel safer.

"Barack has made clear energy independence is a priority"

You talk about energy security, I agree both candidates talk a good game, but McCain supports the drilling necessary to being an end to foreign oil imports. As an engineer I do not think the government should be supporting research into renewable energy, as the market is doing this (anyone who solves the energy crisis will make a lot of money, so investors are getting in early)

"You refer to Obama as inexperienced. Well, you have a point, but Barack served in the Illinois Senate from 1997-2004 and has been a US Senator since 2005. David Cameron only entered Parliament in 2001, and only assumed a Shadow Cabinet role in 2005, but he is now the likely next Prime Minister, and I know you support him."

By the time Cameron is elected he will have been leader for 4 years and in parliament for 9, I think he will be experience enough. Obama is a junior senator and has never had an executive or cabinet role.

Also Palin has had real executive experience, Governor of a crucial state in the energy war, mayor of a town and being responsible for all its services, she wins is a real ace in the McCain hand.

"You claim Obama has zero policies"

I have been on Obama’s website and also read his “blueprint for change” and found it to be mainly aspirations and not ideas. An empty rhetoric of supporting this policy and small ideas, with minimal information of the big issues, compared to the manifestos of any British party from 2005 it is wishy washy and lax.

"I've noted before that I think both McCain and Palin to be genuine, decent and hard working people, my problem is with a Republican Party that opposes gun control, supports the death penalty, opposes the use stem cells for potential life saving treatment and who oppose same-sex marriage (interesting that some self-proclaimed Libertarians seem to overlook this fact). McCain may well have ethics, so does Palin, but they are not the right ethics for America in 2008."

This is an interesting point about the right ethics, I remember hearing once that “ethics are affected by the surroundings”, you say that “these are not the right ethics for America”, but I say they are marriage is by definition between man and woman, those who ignore societies laws should suffer consequences, guns do not kill people people kill people (more are killed by doctors and cars than by guns, should we get rid of these). I am a libertarian, I believe the state should not interfere, as part of this the state should not interfere with a millennia old institution as a way to win some trendy votes.

My final argument for McCain is this America is at war and needs a war president. McCain has fought, Obama does not understand the military or foreign policy, he would be a danger.

Time Off

2008-09-07T07:30:00.000-07:00

Hi All, I am away for the next week so will not be blogging.

When I come back I will reply to Nick Webbs blog on Republicans as well as starting the Energy project.

Chris

That Took Two Months!

2008-09-02T12:57:00.000-07:00

I am amazed that after two months all the government could come up with to stave of recession was to slightly increase stamp duty (thereby trapping 1st time buyers in negative equity when the markets falls 15% this year) and subsidising new builds )and storing up problems for their buyers with additional loans).

I am appalled. Mainly as I think both of these ideas are short term problem solving that will create even bigger disasters in 12 months and five years respectively.

I am also annoyed about the regional targeting of the aid. Where in the South East can you buy a two bedroom property for £175k. This is short termism at its worse storing up problems for the future to buy votes today.

This will be my definition of New Labour - short term vote winning at the cost of the future. 639 days to go.

Republicans

2008-09-01T14:32:00.000-07:00

Nick Webb on has commented on his blog about the Republican party and his reasons for opposing McCain and Palin. He has focused on two very important issues - gay marriage and gun control.

I have a lot of respect for Nick, he is one of the people who has impressed me the most during my time with CF, he does not hold his opinions lightly and brings an intellectual breadth and depth to his ideas I envy, but I disagree with his statements about John McCain.

"two men getting married to one another is perceived as a danger to society, but mass public ownership of fire arms is regarded as safe"

The problem is I agree with the first of these statements. I am not homophobic, I have no problem with gay relationships, but I disagree with gay marriage. Marriage is between a man and a woman and should be protected, centuries of tradition, religion and society should not be ignored by a government for trendy vote winning. This is not a popular opinion, but it is widespread.

This is not the only policy of the Republicans, they are the small government, low spending, American Party. McCain has the right idea on Iraq war supporting the surge which has proved successful, while Obama has flip-flopped on the issue and is so inexperienced he was not even in the senate when the war vote took place.

One of my main reasons for supporting McCain is I just don't like Obama. I am surprised that anyone in this country can support him! After 10 years of Blair why are we falling again for spin, vacuous promises, zero policies and no content from a professional politician. McCain is a war hero with a 20 year senate record against a single term senator who has done nothing outside politics. Palin has engaged corruption and vested interests and won, raised a family and has a spouse with personality, Joe Biden a man so lacking in personality he has to plagiarise Neil Kinnock!

I support McCain because I believe in what he stands for and he has demonstrated grit and ethics. I oppose Obama because I cannot tell what he stands for and he has achieved nothing with this political life yet.

A New Term

2008-08-31T09:47:00.000-07:00

Well August is almost over. Soon politics will begin again, we have the conferences, the Autumn relaunch, Glenrothes and the Queen's Speech to look forward to.

Despite my less than accurate last prediction I will make some guesses at what will happen in the next few months.

Labour Conference - Outward show of unity, positive statements about Gordon from Miliband, Darling, Straw, Harman, but a rumbling discontent from the members and unions. Attempts to placate unions with new taxes and other measures, will show a few point benefits in opinion polls.

Conservative Conference - A very positive conference, the Shadow Cabinet will draw together, it does need to do anything or panic. A lead in the polls will be maintained.

Lib Dem Conference - Statements designed to appeal to Labour voters and the party will continue to position themselves to fight Labour in the North.

Brown's Autumn Relaunch - Will be successful for a few days, but not be as successful as required and rumblings will begin again. Either Miliband will go or there will be an obvious attempt to become PM.

Glenrothes By-Election - SNP win. They have had enough time to make themselves known and with continued bad news and Brown unpopularity I think the SNP will sneak it.

Overall I expect the position on January the 1st to be similar to now. Gordon Brown is PM, Tories at 40-45%, Labour at 25-30%, Lib Dems 15-20%, but the longer the polls stay like this the harder it is for Labour to recover.

It's Now McCain's to Win

2008-08-30T10:34:00.000-07:00

After watching the American election for the last few weeks I have struck by one thing. How badly Obama is doing. Neck and Neck with McCain, discontented Hilliary supporters and a tiredness from voters with his message. His campaign is failing

After the (almost totally) positive reaction to the selection of Sarah Palin as his running mate I was just struck by the thought that in a normal year Obama would win the White House (with the economy stalling and problems in Iraq and Afghanistan), Yet he has not capitalised. Obama should win the election, but if McCain fights hard he can win it, and he dosen't stike me as a quitter.

The Problem with Youth - What to Do

2008-08-28T12:41:00.000-07:00

In a previous post I talked about the good work volunteers do and how we should leave youth work with to volunteer organisations and just support the men and women who give up their time.

But what support is required and what can be given?

Insurance - one of the major expenditures of any youth group. To protect the leaders of the group insurance is required, but is expensive a government run scheme would hopefully be cheaper, but would mean government interference in youth groups through inspection and additional paper work.

Child Protection - false accusation deter much needed potential leaders. A shakeup of the law criminalising false accusation, as well as providing training to leaders on how to avoid putting themselves at risk from these accusation would be useful. When I became an officer in the BB, a significant portion of the training focused on this, it also included information on how to spot abuse in children and dangerous behavior in other officers

Training Courses - If a local council could provide courses on cookery, first aid or sports this would ensure leaders were fully trained this would protect children and also ensure we could offer a better range of activities.

There are also other ideas and suggestions, which many leaders can contribute, but this is enough to start with.

Some Funny Vids

2008-08-27T13:53:00.000-07:00

The problem is it they are all so believable. I can see the Beeb or Sky producing programs like this!

I do enjoy the Onion.

Slavery to be Taught in Schools

2008-08-26T07:00:00.000-07:00

According to the BBC the slave trade will be a mandatory part of the curriculum from September. I am very pleased about this as a proper education about slavery and Britain role in it will dispel some myths.

1, The West Africa Squadron . A sixth of the Royal Navy dedicated to stopping slavers. 1600 boats captured and 150,000 slaves freed, as well as 4000 men died policing the Atlantic.

2, Bristol/Liverpool/London was a Slave Port. No slaves entered these ports or any other port in Britain. What was traded in these cities was cotton, sugar and other produce.

3, Africans Slave Trade. African leaders traded their people to the slavers, Africa hands are not clean of this vile act.

There are many more myths that students will have cleared up for them, after all the sessions won't just be Empire bashing and apologising will they?

Media and Clegg

2008-08-26T02:40:00.000-07:00

Spotted this on the BBC News site, my first thought was "how did I miss that!". Turns out it is only for the Scottish leader, but the situation is bad when an avid politics fan seriously thinks their may be a Lin Dem leadership contest he hasn't heard of.

This brings a serious problem with the Lib Dems, the only time they seem to get serious coverage is during leadership elections, but they cannot seriously consider having four leaders in a single parliament.

How do the Lib Dems fight the two party media squeeze? My suggestion is gimmicks. This is how Cameron got his first serious (and positive) coverage of the party, the visit to Greenland, the picture of the Huskies, vote blue go green, Dave the Chameleon. It was all a gimmick, but it got press time. Once we had the time, we could say how the party had changed, say what our policies were, but we needed that airtime and it took us nearly a year to get it.

Only when the Lib Dems have a profile can they begin saying what their party is for, and only then can they fight the squeeze.

The Problem with Youth

2008-08-25T14:22:00.000-07:00

Another day, another teenage life cut short by knife crime. What can be done?

Some say banning knives is the solution, but as someone who regularly carries a knife (they are useful) and has never stabbed nor had the inclination I have come to the conclusion that it is not the knife that kills but the wielder of the blade who is at fault (blinding flash of the obvious I know).

But how do we combat this culture. The government has tried additional funding for youth groups, but I am reminding of a conversation I once overheard with a youth support worker.

For a bit of background I volunteer with the Boys Brigade a Christian youth organisation founded in 1883. A different officer within the company mentioned his work to a youth worker, and she responded by saying how good it was to see “non-traditional youth work” was still going strong. He queried the use of “non-traditional” stating the organisation was 125 years old and had worked through the church and been inspired by the military and asked how any of this was non-traditional compared the traditional youth started in the 50’s by local councils. This level of ignorance is dangerous and undermines the work done by the Scouts, Guides, Pilots, Crusaders

I think this is the problem with youth work now. Councils employ “dedicated” social science graduates, who have no idea, went to a middle class youth group and do it as a job part funded by mommy and daddy and view themselves as dedicated.

The most dedicated man I have ever met was a captain with the Boys’ Brigade in Bristol. He has a full time job, a family, works with other local churches, has one evening a week free and seems to do something every weekend. The company has had problems with officers over the time I was involved, but he was always there on a Monday working with the boys.

It is people like this man who are the answer. The only question to ask is how we can support him.

Poor Sod

2008-08-24T12:28:00.000-07:00

I saw this picture during the handover of the Olympic colours. The poor bloke, he looked like a pillock in front of an audience of billions

I have paraded with colours before and know exactly how difficult it is to handle them, but in this case it was his fault. He did not have them under control and was not holding the fabric correctly. He has however suffered enough and his only chance to star in front of an international audience ends in humiliation.

People Who Deserve to be Punished (Part 1)

2008-08-23T15:50:00.000-07:00

This will be an irregular feature of people who have annoyed me during the day. I will use this blog as a way of venting against life's petty annoyances.

So the first winner of this illustrious award is....

The inventor of the self-checkout till.

Congratulations you saved Tescos the bother of employing a teenager who knows how to work a register to replace it with a pensioner who is unsure how the system works and ends up wasting the entires queues time by moving so slowly, spending 5 minutes trying to find the bar code of an apple or trying to get their card into the cash slot.

Now I really should be angry at the pensioners, but I won't. I had difficulty using these machines at first and it is not their fault technology has advanced so much. I am angry at the people who have tried to save a few pennies and as a byproduct wasted so much of my time waiting for other people who do have the faintest idea what they are doing.

Either get rid of the tills or introduce an licence to allow people to use them

The Big Read

2008-08-21T13:09:00.001-07:00

I found this on a friend’s blog. Apparently the average Briton has only read 6. How many have you read? Here is my list.

1. Look at the list and bold those you have read.
2. Italicize those you intend to read.
3. Underline the books you love.
4. Strike out the books you have no intention of ever reading, or were forced to read at school and hated.
5. Reprint this list in your own blog so we can try and track down these people who’ve only read 6 and force books upon them

1. The Lord of the Rings, JRR Tolkien
2. Pride and Prejudice, Jane Austen
3. His Dark Materials, Philip Pullman
4. The Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy, Douglas Adams
5. Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire, JK Rowling
6. To Kill a Mockingbird, Harper Lee
7. Winnie the Pooh, AA Milne
8. Nineteen Eighty-Four, George Orwell (This is my favourite book, due to it’s enviable quatability)
9. The Lion, the Witch and the Wardrobe, CS Lewis
10. Jane Eyre, Charlotte Brontë
11. Catch-22, Joseph Heller
12. Wuthering Heights, Emily Brontë
13. Birdsong, Sebastian Faulks
14. Rebecca, Daphne du Maurier
15. The Catcher in the Rye, JD Salinger
16. The Wind in the Willows, Kenneth Grahame
17. Great Expectations, Charles Dickens
18. Little Women, Louisa May Alcott
19. Captain Corelli's Mandolin, Louis de Bernieres
20. War and Peace, Leo Tolstoy
21. Gone with the Wind, Margaret Mitchell
22. Harry Potter And The Philosopher's Stone, JK Rowling
23. Harry Potter And The Chamber Of Secrets, JK Rowling
24. Harry Potter And The Prisoner Of Azkaban, JK Rowling
25. The Hobbit, JRR Tolkien
26. Tess Of The D'Urbervilles, Thomas Hardy
27. Middlemarch, George Eliot
28. A Prayer For Owen Meany, John Irving
29. The Grapes Of Wrath, John Steinbeck
30. Alice's Adventures In Wonderland, Lewis Carroll
31. The Story Of Tracy Beaker, Jacqueline Wilson
32. One Hundred Years Of Solitude, Gabriel García Márquez
33. The Pillars Of The Earth, Ken Follett
34. David Copperfield, Charles Dickens
35. Charlie And The Chocolate Factory, Roald Dahl
36. Treasure Island, Robert Louis Stevenson
37. A Town Like Alice, Nevil Shute
38. Persuasion, Jane Austen
39. Dune, Frank Herbert
40. Emma, Jane Austen
41. Anne Of Green Gables, LM Montgomery
42. Watership Down, Richard Adams
43. The Great Gatsby, F Scott Fitzgerald
44. The Count Of Monte Cristo, Alexandre Dumas
45. Brideshead Revisited, Evelyn Waugh
46. Animal Farm, George Orwell
51. The Secret Garden, Frances Hodgson Burnett
52. Of Mice And Men, John Steinbeck
53. The Stand, Stephen King
54. Anna Karenina, Leo Tolstoy
55. A Suitable Boy, Vikram Seth
56. The BFG, Roald Dahl
57. Swallows And Amazons, Arthur Ransome (My favourite children’s book it took me 5 years in primary and secondatry school to read them all)
58. Black Beauty, Anna Sewell
59. Artemis Fowl, Eoin Colfer
60. Crime And Punishment, Fyodor Dostoyevsky
61. Noughts And Crosses, Malorie Blackman
62. Memoirs Of A Geisha, Arthur Golden
63. A Tale Of Two Cities, Charles Dickens
64. The Thorn Birds, Colleen McCollough
65. Mort, Terry Pratchett
66. The Magic Faraway Tree, Enid Blyton
67. The Magus, John Fowles
68. Good Omens, Terry Pratchett and Neil Gaiman
69. Guards! Guards!, Terry Pratchett
70. Lord Of The Flies, William Golding
71. Perfume, Patrick Süskind
72. The Ragged Trousered Philanthropists, Robert Tressell
73. Night Watch, Terry Pratchett
74. Matilda, Roald Dahl
~~75. Bridget Jones's Diary, Helen Fielding~~
76. The Secret History, Donna Tartt
77. The Woman In White, Wilkie Collins
78. Ulysses, James Joyce
79. Bleak House, Charles Dickens
80. Double Act, Jacqueline Wilson
81. The Twits, Roald Dahl
82. I Capture The Castle, Dodie Smith
83. Holes, Louis Sachar
84. Gormenghast, Mervyn Peake
85. The God Of Small Things, Arundhati Roy
86. Vicky Angel, Jacqueline Wilson
87. Brave New World, Aldous Huxley
88. Cold Comfort Farm, Stella Gibbons
89. Magician, Raymond E Feist
90. On The Road, Jack Kerouac
91. The Godfather, Mario Puzo
92. The Clan Of The Cave Bear, Jean M Auel
93. The Colour Of Magic, Terry Pratchett
94. The Alchemist, Paulo Coelho
95. Katherine, Anya Seton
~~96. Kane And Abel, Jeffrey Archer~~
97. Love In The Time Of Cholera, Gabriel García Márquez
99. The Princess Diaries, Meg Cabot
~~100. Midnight's Children, Salman Rushdie~~

I was surprised there was no HG Wells on the list. I really enjoy his books and think he is one of the best British authors ever and War of the Worlds is the best English language book.

Whiter Than White

2008-08-20T13:24:00.000-07:00

I hate writing this post, I hate myself for thinking it, it is beneath me, snide and unfair, but I feel it must be said.

Christine Ohuruogu won the 400m gold medal sprint with a phenomenal last 50 metres. She was however, suspended for 12 months for missing three drug tests.

Is this win deserved? The very fact this question is being asked means the win is tainted. In the 1988 Seoul Olympics Ben Johnson won the 100m, but was disqualified for drug offences forever tarnishing the sport.

Like the Tour de France, athletics is almost synonymous with drugs. Marion Jones, Kelli White, Calvin Harrison and Chryste Gaines all gold medal winners all later stripped of their titles for drug offences.

We can not allow any doubt if athletics is too survive as a sport. The letter of law must also obeyed, but also the spirit. Sorry Christine my first though was "well done, but is it legal?"

A Novel Method of Funding

2008-08-19T13:09:00.000-07:00

In the last few days there has been a lot of talk about the funding of the British Olympic team and who gets the credit. I want to suggest a new way to fund Team GB.

A lot of charities allow you to donate a certain amount of money to buy something for a village in Africa i.e. from Oxfam, £50 for two goats or £24 for a teacher.

I suggest we do the same with the British team. £200 buys a helmet for a cyclist, £500 an oar for rowers. Imagine the pride as a sailor wins a gold and you can shout at the TV "Ben Ainslie won using my sail!".

By personalising your donations to the team you have a direct link to our 2012 team.

I'd be interested in buying ammo for the shooting team. What would you sponsor?

Labour’s Bad Aim

2008-08-18T15:10:00.000-07:00

Today Yvette Balls (nee Cooper) attacked Conservative economic policy in the Guardian. I was very surprised by this attack, but as Iain Dale has done an excellent job destroying her article, I shall not comment upon its flaws.

I shall instead focus upon her choice of target. The economy is not doing well, each week there seems to be a new piece of bad news, from increasing unemployment, government borrowing and inflation, to decreasing tax revenue and growth prospects.

I do not understand why anyone would choose to fight here. Any reference to the 1990’s can be dismissed as Cameron wasn’t around, while simultaneously a parallel can be drawn with what is happening today.

If Labour want to attack us there are plenty of other areas – social justice, education or start asking questions about the NHS in 30years (this is difficult area and could be the most divisive political event coming).

From a Future History Book

2008-08-17T12:56:00.000-07:00

“The 2008 NATO - Russia War (colloquially known as the Georgian Escalation) lasted 6 months before the final battle of Moscow ended. The final death toll was measured in tens of thousands and Europe once again lay in tatters after a bloody war and was being rebuilt with American money.

The Third Battle of the Atlantic almost brought starved Britain, while the bombings and destruction across the continent lead to thousands of civilian deaths from lack of food, or just collateral damage.”

No, I can’t see us fighting this war, but this is what a war with Russia will mean.

NATO was founded when there was a true threat to Europe and France, Britain Turkey and Germany knew they had to band with the USA to present a united front to Russia or they would be picked off one by one.

NATO cannot not fight to protect Georgia as we have too much to lose, this is why Georgia is not in NATO.

NATO is not powerless, but has no mission, no binding threat. We must decide what we want NATO to do. Is it purely to protect against threats from Russia or terrorists, or should it be an “aggressive” organisation seeking to promote democracy and human rights across the globe.

NATO is in a midlife crisis, and is searching for a role. The Georgian crisis has demonstrated this, we must work together to decide what happens next.

Conservatives Future’s New Structure

2008-08-16T14:24:00.000-07:00

I have been hearing on various sites about a “shake up” in the structure of CF. I do not know what is proposed or even who is suggesting what, but I am reminded of what happened at BUCA many years ago.

After a former Area Chairman (not Nick Webb) tried to interfere with the running of the society we ignored the CF and successfully ran the association for many years. I think this could be an excellent solution to any proposed structural shake up.

Dislike the London appointed Director or Chairman, ignore them and get back to true localism and providing for your members and work with local associations for local candidates.

CF needs a voice to the national party, but should be run locally at no more than county level not in European invented regions.

I'm Back

2008-08-15T12:51:00.000-07:00

Dear All,

Firstly sorry for lack of blogging for the past week. It has been very hectic and I have had a number of problems. Firstly my laptop broke and so I have been unable to get online as I have been forced to share the family computer.

Then when I finally fixed my laptop we changed our Broadband supplier and I had to update the wireless on four computers which took me most of the day as nothing can be simple!

I have also been ill and car hunting, although I hope both of these will soon end.

So please accept my apologise. Normal service will resume tomorrow.

Proportional Representation

2008-08-08T14:13:00.001-07:00

In the 2005 general election the Labour party had a 3 point lead in terms of votes over the conservatives yet won 158 more seats. This is one of the biggest arguments in favour of PR, that a system of PR would eliminate the bias and produce a fairer allocation of seats. I personally believe the result is an argument for better boundaries. After all the boundaries for the 2010 election will be based up the 2001 census, so will be 9 years out of date before anyone has voted.

With turnouts of only 61.3% there is no doubt that voters are disenchanted with politics, but I do not think PR will decrease this. I personally believe that removing the direct link between your vote and your representative is dangerous and will only lead to increased voter disenchantment.

The biggest example of a lack of connection between the electorate and the representatives are the MEPs. Can you name your MEP? I can name my MPs and all five of my councillors, both at home and in Bristol, but do not have any idea who any of the 10 MEPs who represent me are. The South East is too big to be represented as one constituency.

The other concern about proportional representation I have is the complicated nature of the election. The “First Past the Post” system can be easily explained (in a sentence). While explaining PR elections usually takes me several paragraphs and a worked example. This complex method means that the average voter will have no idea how their representatives are selected further weakening the link between an electorate and their parliament.

Democracy must simple and open. It must not be difficult to explain. It must not have a counting process which is clear.

Can we not bring back FPTP for the European elections to allow us at least a small connection to our MEPs.

Is there a point to Labour?

2008-08-07T08:37:00.000-07:00

Before you read this please understand this is not a short term assessment to the next election or the one beyond that. This is questioning whether the Labour party will be one of the two main parties in British politics in 30 years.

“The object of these measures is to enable the people ultimately to obtain the Socialisation of the Means of Production, Distribution, and Exchange, to be controlled by a Democratic State in the interests of the entire Community, and the Complete Emancipation of labour from the Domination of Capitalism and Landlordism, with the Establishment of Social and Economic Equality between the Sexes.”

The above is the introduction of the 1900 Labour Party Manifesto. Over the last 40 years the two key objectives of this first manifesto have disappeared, the Labour has abandoned socialism and equal rights between the sexes and minorities, has been achieved a question has to be asked.

Is there a purpose to the current Labour party or will it, like the old Liberal party, gradually disappear with decreasing representations and vote share. After all many voters are now asking what is the point of the Labour party without socialism, a Labour party which ignores the poor.

I believe over the next 30 years Labour and the Lib Dems will fight hard to be the main “Left” wing party. If Labour hold off the Lib Dems then they will have a stay of execution before the Lib Dems return a few years later to try again, as they did after their formation in the 80’s.

The next election promises to be an interesting one and will indicate the direction of this fight. One of the main issues will not be the rights of workers, but the wrongs of non-workers and whichever of the parties can convince the Labour working class supporters they have the answer to this question will gain a massive advantage in the upcoming fight.

Dark Knight Review – Part 2

2008-08-05T07:16:00.000-07:00

Iain Duncan Smith stated in an article yesterday that the Dark Knight should be reclassified to a 15. I have a lot of respect for the man and believe he was poorly treated by the party, I especially like his reports on social justice and willingness to be forthright with his views But I think he is wrong in this belief.

This is my response to people who say the film should be a 15 and not a 12A, as little kids can see it or it is too disturbing for 13 year olds.

In 2002 the rating 12A replaced the 12 rating the primary difference was under the 12A rating parents could bring younger children into the film with them. This rating change was caused by the complaints that the 12 rated film Wild Wild West starring Will Smith had been marketed to children through the usage of kids meals at Burger King and other merchandising, but these same children were too young to legally watch the film. Because of this the 12A rating was bought in so parents could take their younger children in to watch these films AT THEIR DISCRETION.

If a parent does not want their 11 year old son to watch the film they do not have to take him. Show some parenting skills and refuse to take your child.

I have seen the film and I truly believe it is appropriate for young teens. In the series finale of Doctor Who, the Daleks invaded Earth, they massacred Unit, they reduced people to dust, they murdered in cold blood. On or off screen all these things happened we knew about them. In the 2005 finale they invaded a future version of Earth inhabited by more than 400 billion people and proceeded to annihilate the population, again they killed. Both of the above examples were considered family viewing, the reason is that it was fantasy violence and not realistic. In the Dark Knight the violence is fantasy as well, there is very little blood seen, there is aggression, but the main character never kills. We bombs explode, but we do not see the bodies. We do not see deaths, but the aftermaths of them. I do not think any can complain about the violence in the movie without looking at any current children’s show or any mainstream TV.

Another compliant is that this is not Batman as we know it, but I think this portrayal of the characters is closer to the comics books than the previous film series or any TV program and kids were not tricked into seeing it. The Joker is a psychopath not a comic villain, Batman is dark and tortured by both his inability to help and the loss of his parents. Read the following books and say which is closer to the real Batman, the film or the Adam West TV series:

The Dark Knight Returns

The Dark Knight Strikes Again

Batman: The Killing Joke

Teenagers should be able to deal with this portrayal and realise it is just make believe and not real, younger children do not have the same level of awareness to be able to distinguish between real and fake.

The other main compliant is the disturbing portrayal of the Joker. Some people go to the cinema to be entertained, but true art is achieved when what you have seen stays with you and forces you to think about it to make you think about yourself and the Joker achieves that – Would you push the button? This is a question I imagines a lot of people asked when leaving the theatre. The film shows us what we could all become and that I think is the most uncomfortable thing for people. We are used to moral absolutes in the media:

X Men Good – Magneto Bad
Police Good – Criminals Bad
Allies Good – Germans Bad

This is a film which deals in shades of grey. Batman fights for good, but tortures and listens in on millions of phone calls. Gordon is a cop who does not trust his own team. The Joker hates the mobsters, but replaces them with something worse.

As such it is a good film for teenagers who start at that age seeing the shades of grey inherent in life. It is not a comic book film, but a film showing real life through comic book characters.

It is a film about Dark characters and a shocking end, but most teens should be able to deal with it and I expect most wil enjoy the violence and the sense of fear as we go to the cinema not to see to real world, but to see what could happen.

Dark Knight Review

2008-08-05T07:05:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I finally went to see the new Batman film. It was worth the wait.

The action scenes, from the starting car park fight to the finale against the Joker, contained the right mix of aggression and cinematography which has been missing in many recent comic book adaptations (Superman Returns, X Men 3) The chase scene followed by the flipping of the lorry were breath taking and fast paced, but were too clean and organised in composition and did not really capture any of the chaos which it tried to elicit.

I also think Heath Ledger stole the show and made the film about the Joker, he gave a truly disturbing performance which lingered after I had left the cinema. The humour of his character only served to add more to his performance and provided a contrast and emphasis to his madness.

However, the overall story line about the how one bad day can turn even the most upstanding citizen was too rushed and could have started earlier in the film as the romantic relationship between Rachel and Bruce was wasted and with the change of actress became frankly ridiculous

I really enjoyed this film and may have to see it again soon.

The Olympics and China

2008-08-03T04:24:00.000-07:00

On Friday, the eight day of the eight month of the eight year, the 26th Olympic Games will open and for the next few weeks some of the greatest athletes in the world will compete for national pride and medals of various colours.

China is treating these games as a giant party to celebrate their emergence as one of the most powerful nations in the world and hopes to top the medal table. I wish the Chinese athletes and all other athletes competing good luck, but all politicians and dignitaries must stay away.

China has some of the worst human rights abuses of the planet, the incidents in Tibet earlier this year, the fact that journalists cannot get free internet access in the media centre and the expulsion of people from their homes show how corrupt and unethical this country is.

All leaders should not attend this is a simple fact and we should not appease China by attending. However the athletes should be free to compete, to even qualify for the Olympics you need to sacrifice for a decade before hand. Waking up at 5am and training before work or school, missing out on friends and parties through your dedication to your sport, this should not be wasted for political grandstanding.

Athletes go to Beijing and do your best in the Olympic spiritfor your homes. Politicians go to Beijing and bring shame on your countries.

Pentyrch By Election – Result

2008-08-01T11:30:00.000-07:00

To follow up from my trip to Wales on Monday here are the results:

Conservative Hold

Alex Evans Lib Dem 97, 7.3% (-0.6%)
Ian Hughes Plaid Cymru 129, 9.6% (-10.1%)
Christine Priday Labour 542, 40.9% (+10.1%)
Craig Williams Conservative 554, 41.9% (+7.4%) (Elected)

Firstly Congratulations to both Criag for being elected and to Labour and the Tories for fighting such a close campaign. Such a close result really shows how hard politics is sometimes and well done to Criag and his team for holding on. I think this shows that any gain from Labour at the next election will be hard fought.

The Lib Dems and Plaid experienced a third party squeeze, but the positions stayed the same and the Lib Dem vote held up as did the overall vote with a good turnout.

PS. Thanks to Nick, I got the results from his site.

“When I hear the word culture, I reach for my remote” – Part 2

2008-08-01T11:18:00.000-07:00

I was thinking about a post I did last week about getting more culture on to TV, and then it hit me!

Ballet Idol – A special one off show. 12 performers compete to be the lead in a new ballet production. This would showcase the talents but would not last too long so the audience gets bored and hopefully raise the profile of the art.

Raise the White Flag of War

2008-07-30T14:04:00.000-07:00

Has Nick Clegg (Leader of the Liberal Democrats) admitted defeat against the Tories in the next election?

On Tuesday Clegg stated he was re-organising the party to target the 50 most vulnerable Labour:Lib Dem marginal. However after looking at the 100 best targets for the Lib Dems from the ukpollingreport website I found that 41 were current Labour seats requiring an average swing of 6.3%, while 56 are currently Tory seats requiring a slightly lower average of 5.7% (3 are SNP). On paper at least the best targets are Tory and even worse for the Lib Dems 13 of the 41 Labour seats will fall to the Tories first on a uniform swing.

With the Tories resurgent in the polls it this seems a sensible tactical choice to refocus against a struggling Labour party, but the almost admittance by the party leader they cannot hold off the Tories, must be devastating to the already low Lib Dem morale. The lack of Lib Dem activity has already been noticeable in Bristol and South Gloucestershire, with the disappearance of party activist from Filton and Bradley Stoke as well as Bristol Northwest and increased efforts to hold on to Chippenham, Bath and Cheltenham.

I honestly think yesterday’s speech by Clegg is a reason for all Tories activist to rejoice, with Labour on the run and the Lib Dems playing defensive battles in the marginals, the next election looks good.

Day Trip to Wales

2008-07-29T15:49:00.000-07:00

Yesterday I had a trip to Wales. The weather was gorgeous and so sunny and hot, it was absolutely perfect for a day at the beach. Unfortunately I spent it delivering leaflets.

Nick, Laura and I went down for the day to help Craig Williams who is standing in the Pentyrch By Election being held on Thursday July 1st
.
The ward was gained by the Conservatives in May, but the councillor has since had to stand down on the advice of his doctor. The standings in the ward in May were Con - 478, Lab - 429, PC - 275, LD - 110, IND - 99. A gain victory for the Tories by only 49 votes it also meant a closely contested race between Labour and the Tories and even thought the Lib Dems claim to be able to win it.

After a 10 minute drive I learnt something very interesting about Cardiff, Wales' largest and most important city - it has rural bits. This was quite a shock as I expected we would be leafletting a town, not spending ten minutes walking up and down hills trying to find homes. I also learnt that having a house name in Welsh and an address in English is not very helpful!

We spent the morning and afternoon trying to find all the homes before stopping of a wonderful pub - The Gwaelod Inn.
We also were able to meet the candidate and see parts of Cardiff as I ran to make my train.

It was a very enjoyable day put and I wish Criag good luck for Thursday.

Weston Pier

2008-07-28T14:37:00.000-07:00

Weston Grand Pier burnt down today. I am very sorry to hear this. My family comes from the area and I was born in the Town and when I was younger spent many sunny afternoons on it. I was very sad to hear it was gone, but hope it will be quickly rebuilt.

Can Labour Still Win the Next Election?

2008-07-27T16:03:00.000-07:00

At first this may seem a facetious question, but I can see a scenario where they can and it all depends on Gordon's old brief - the economy. There could still be a deus ex machina in the form of a major conservative scandal, but weathering the Wintertons and Boris' ill judged appointments probably means nothing too big is waiting. (Famous Last Words).

If towards the end of the year some stability has entered the stock market and more importantly the commodities market. After all the main problem now is inflation from petrol, food and energy, this should mean house price recover.

If this happens a competent Labour machine could say, the short term hurt was worth it look was Gordon he achieved with the economy, he turned it around etc etc. With Labour on the road to recovery they could begin fund raising again.

In this case it may mean Labour can be the biggest party in a hung parliament.

I do not think it is a likely occurrence as the electorate have lost too much faith in Labour and like Major's last term too much has happened, but it is still a scary thought.

As they say "it's the economy stupid"

Good Bless the Daily Mail

2008-07-27T06:04:00.000-07:00

In the Mail on Sunday's Live Magazine there was a wonderful survey about the most popular passwords.

I have two thoughts about this firstly – how did they find the information?

I pray it was a street interview:

Interviewer – Good Afternoon. Do you have a spare 5 minutes to answer a survey?
Interviewee – Sure
Interviewer – Firstly what password do you use?
Interviewee – Er, I’m not supposed to tell people that.
Interviewer – Don’t worry it’s just a short survey that will appear in a nation newspaper
Interviewer – That’s OK then. It’s 123.
Interviewer – Next Question, what’s your email address?

Secondly it’s about the bias in the sample. The people silly enough to give out their passwords will be the only passwords included. I notice that “NCC-1701” was not included and anyone with a computer education can tell you the importance of that code. I know this is a common password as I have used it myself on many occasions to access files and other information.

My main problem with any survey of this type is the inherent bias in the sample, in this case to people with lax computer security. Have some fun and try to find other surveys which are misleading, but for other reasons.

Glasgow East - Result

2008-07-25T01:54:00.000-07:00

Congratulations to the SNP, they took discontent with the government and motivated the electorate to come out and vote for them. It is not easy to turn disaffection into votes so well done to John Mason, Alex Salmond and the rest of the SNP team.

I was pleased to the Tories went into 3rd and beat the Lib Dems, but not that the vote share fell. It could have been a tactical decision, with LD supporters being more tactical, only time and the polls will tell.

I think GB is wounded, but not fatally, with the recess coming up he should recover until the conference, but the party will be less forgiving and any mistake or another loss will see him removed. Expecting to see some discontented rumblings, but mostly Labour will put up a united front. Politics will now be on holiday until September. See the fun restart at the conferences.

Fianlly my prediction. I was dead wrong, I admit it. Only thing I got right was the Tories beating the Lib Dems, I shall now refrain from all betting until I can rig the result.

“When I hear the word culture, I reach for my remote”

2008-07-24T15:55:00.000-07:00

I know this will sound strange, but we do not see enough ballet on TV. The graceful movements of this most technical of disciplines are missing from our screens. We also do not see enough true theatre, concerts or opera. I know these activities are seen as elitist, but there is something very special about watching a performer who has devoted their life to master an art. The poise, control or emotions they project, it is an awesome experience to be in an audience of an expert in their craft.

This is a cry for recognition of true excellence, not celebrity born from lazy opportunism or press sensationalism, but for us as a nation to show true respect to people who have dedicated their lives to an art, with the only reward being the mastery of it.

Please support your local arts, there is true talent that must be celebrated.

Lobby the BBC. They are the public broadcaster, there not to pander our base instincts, but to educate and improve our lives. They do the Proms, but they must do more!

Stop buying Heat or other glossy which celebrate no-talent fame starved “Starlets”.

Culture is not limited to a few, but it is for everyone, please use your share.

Glasgow East – My Prediction

2008-07-23T14:10:00.000-07:00

Tomorrow the year’s fourth by-election will be held in Glasgow East. The previous three have all been won by the Conservatives, this won is being held in the 25th safest Labour seat in the country. Last week I predicted the consequences of various results, in this post I will make my prediction as to the result.

Labour – 45% (-16%)
SNP – 35% (+18%)
Conservatives – 9% (+3%)
Lib Dems – 5% (-6%)
Greens – 2% (N/A)
Other – 4% (N/A)

Turnout 30%

I think Labour will hold on as the majority is too big, but the SNP will run them close, but not that close and achieve an impressive swing. I think the Tories will over take the Lib Dems due to the Tories improved poll standings and the decrease in Lib Dem support since 2005.

Turnout will be low for three reasons:
Low Turnout in 2005
Glasgow Fair
Normal By-election turnout fall.

There is a caveat to this that if the turnout is much lower the SNP may sneak it. We shall see tomorrow.

Why can’t Phones be Phones?

2008-07-22T15:31:00.000-07:00

I am currently looking at buying a new phone, but everywhere I go into seems to not have heard of this device. Vodaphone seem intent on selling me a camera, Carphone Warehouse seem to only sell music players and Orange only have web browsers.

I want a phone to talk and text, I do not want a camera or email or music. I have these devices. When will companies start making these phones again!

Nuclear Hypocrisy

2008-07-21T15:14:00.001-07:00

We have all sat round a pub table, when after a few drinks the talk turns from the usual light conversation to more weighty matters. One of the perennial topics of the past few years and one which I expect to continue to affect the world for many years is Iran.

I have often been called on to defend the consistency of my opinion that Trident should be renewed, but Iran should not be allowed nuclear weapons. A few of my more liberal friends refer to this as hypocrisy. I call it common sense.

I have two main arguments for this double standard, the first being we are a democracy and Iran is not. Iran does not hold free elections, to stand for election you must be approved by the Imams, this means that Iran is not democratic and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is a despot and not a president.

My second argument is that the UK has not threatened to “wipe Israel from the map”.

My stance may seem like hypocrisy, but the UK and Iran are not the same and have completely different situations. We must treat Iran like the dangerous state it is.

All Aboard!

2008-07-20T14:25:00.000-07:00

I love listening to the old comedy programs on BBC 7, it was a very useful distraction while working especially in the last few hectic months of my degree!

One of my favourite radio programs is The Navy Lark. It based around the ship HMS Troutbridge and the “jolly japes” the crew gets up to. It is my kind of comedy nice and simple and doesn’t try to score political points as some modern programs do. The comedy focuses on word play and sit-com situations.

A nice gentle comedy to while away the hours, join the crew on BBC 7 at 8:30am on Tuesdays. Make Sail!

Are Universities Institutional Sexist?

2008-07-17T13:21:00.000-07:00

This thought stems from a conversation I was having about my recent graduation and how someone was confused when I said I was “a Master”, she then stated surely I was a Mister. I then explained I was talking about my degree, she then said what do women get? I said a Masters degree as well, she replied “Oh”.

Should Women get a “Mistresses” degree instead of a “Masters”? Or a “Spinsters” degree instead of a “Bachelors”?

The legend is that Bristol graduates are denied mortarboards as they threw them at the first women graduates. This could be the issue where Bristol makes up for this lapse with a progressive re-naming of degrees.

Consequences from Glasgow East

2008-07-16T14:04:00.000-07:00

So far this year there have been 3 by-elections with a fourth coming up soon in Glasgow East. The previous 3 have all been won by the Conservatives in convincing fashion. In Crewe and Nantwich the party gained its firs by election seat for 26 year, as well as getting a net swing to the Tories against the Lib-Dems in the safe Conservative seat of Henley.

On the 24th of July there will be a fourth in Glasgow East. I am going to try to predict what the consequences of each result will be for each of the major parties. This not what I think will happen, but what the consequences of each likely result will be.

Labour - Majority Greater then 10%. Brown safe and will have the summer to revitalise his government. The Tories and SNP would face difficult questions and have to rethink strategy. Alex Salmond in particularly will be under great pressure. SNP and Tories will suffer in the polls.

Labour - Narrow Victory. Brown will be under great pressure, maybe even a vote of confidence by Labour MPs. Tories will benefit in the polls

Labour - Loss. Brown will not be PM at the next election. Depending upon which party wins the leader will get a massive benefit and future opinion polls will show a move to that party from Labour.

SNP – Victory or narrow Defeat. Salmond Safe and gains at future general elections in Scotland. Polls will increase for SNP

SNP – Vote Decrease. Salmond will face great pressure and is unlikely to be SNP leader in the next elections.

Conservative/Lib Dem – Victory. Unthinkable, but if it happens Brown will be gone by conference season and Tories would make gains in Scotland at next general election.

Conservative – Beat Lib Dems. Moral boast for activist, Cameron can claim that to listening to the concerns of urban poor. Lib Dems will move even more from offence against Tories to defence. Nick Clegg will be under great pressure may even be replaced if defeat is to great

Conservative – Beaten by Lib Dems. As long as deposit kept Cameron should be ok. Tories have nothing to lose in this seat. The trouble will come from within the party, with discussions on moving back to “traditional” policies. Nick Clegg will be safe from threats.

I will publish my prediction as to the likely result early next week, should be an interesting result whatever happens.

Dark Knight: Memorial or Money Making?

2008-07-16T10:02:00.000-07:00

The Dark Knight is the sequel to 2005 successful re-launch of the Batman film series. This film looks to be as good as the first and the trailer shows it looks to be an action smash fest and lots of fun.

The only blot for the film was the unfortunate death of one of the lead actors, Heath Ledger, from complications with prescription medication.

Since I watched the first film I have been waiting for the sequel, but after the death of the lead actor I was conflicted about whether I could watch it. The main concern I have was about the motives’ of the producers, are they trying to make money out of the death of one of the actors?

I have been thinking about this since I first heard of the tragedy. After some soul searching and watching of the trailers I came to my conclusion. I do not think the producers are trying to cash in on the death. The Joker does appear prominently in the trailer, but as the main villain he should.

In summary I believe the studio has struck a good balance on how to respond to Heath Ledgers death and he portrayed a genuinely scary Joker. However with the knowledge the actor died shortly after filming it may add an unwelcome chill to the viewing.

RIP Heath Ledger

Cheeky Cheeky

2008-07-15T02:22:00.000-07:00

Politics's most glamorous couple, Lembit Opik and Gabriela Irimia are apparently on a break. I do hope they stay together they have bough some amusement to the sometimes staid world of Westminster.

An Interesting Idea

2008-07-14T14:58:00.000-07:00

About a month ago I was chatting to the Hannah and Nikki in the flat and while watching the news the two of them came up with a very interesting proposition. It is the sort of idea which I like due to its eccentric nature and I had never heard this idea discussed before.

The idea is that the alcohol you can purchase at an off-licence is limited by your age, with anyone under 21 limited to a certain number of Alco pops and anyone over that age unlimited.

I like this idea as I think it is a great solution limiting young people to the weaker products until they are ready or accustomed to alcohol. As it is limited to shops the solution will not affect pubs and clubs.

I realise this scheme would be very difficult to enforce and one of the major problems is the lack of the one single age limit which would be very confusing, but I think it is this sort of idea deserves further consideration.

The main problem with this scheme is the fact it does not directly affect underage drinking, but by limiting what their peer group can legally buy hopefully, the problems associated with underage drinking can be curbed.

This is not the silver bullet to solve alcohol abuse, but these sort of counter-intuitive ideas must be considered if we are attempt to solve any of the complex social issues which afflict our society.

Banksy Exposed

2008-07-13T14:59:00.000-07:00

Excellent news! With the Daily Mail performing some piece of public service we now know the name of this criminal we can finally arrest and charge him, I have no doubt the government has instructed the police to do just this under the “zero tolerance” policing rules.

Or will he manage to escape jail by pleading the old excuse “art”. My main problem with street artists is not their holier than thou attitude (as a blogger I cannot in good faith object to this) or the aura of smug intellectual superiority (again as a blogger I cannot object, but as an engineer I can wonder where they get it from). The sense of achievement from artist is annoying, but as art it must arouse emotions and so artist like Tracey Emin fulfil their role.

The main problem with Banksy and his ilk is their legitimising of real graffiti. This urban blight is sickening and the simple appearance of a tag makes me nervous wherever I go. It adds to a sense of deprivation and lowers civic pride it makes people not care and allows low level crime a foothold which quickly turns decent areas into no-go zones.

When New Yorkers started to turn their city around they started with graffiti and turned one of the most dangerous cities in the USA into one of the safest. We must have the same resolve to tackle crime.

Arrest Banksy!

Banksy’s “Art” – Obtained from his website and Flickr

Thoughts on the G8

2008-07-08T07:16:00.001-07:00

Every year the leaders of eight of the world's most powerful countries meet up to discuss important issues. In the past these issues have included the price of oil, African poverty, climate change and world debt. This year they seem to be focused on food prices. A good important issue that is causing harm to almost everyone on the planet.

But as a casual observer (and someone who realises discussing these issues without China and India present is at best silly and at worse petty) the people who interest me the most are the protesters.

You know the sort, people who fly half way round the world to campaign against carbon emmissions, but they are always so much fun to watch. It is comic listening to these smug gits as they try to explain why we should listen to them, when they have managed to achieve precisely nothing in their lives against people who have been elected by population numbering in millions to represent their views.

It's why I always watch hoping there's going to be a riot so they can all get their heads smashed in as hopefully it will knock some sense into them.

I know the protestors have valid points but violence and ridicule of the only people in the world who can help is not the way to help.

Violence and Ridicule - Images taken from the BBC News Website

Definitely Not a White Colonial

2008-06-25T15:26:00.000-07:00

On Sunday I was very unhappy. Morgan Tsvangirai had dropped out of the Zimbabwean President “Contest” it looked as though Mugabe had won. Though the use of rape, torture and murder he was to be President for another 5 years. I doubted if the country could survive 5 more months of his leadership. Free to describe the disgust of the West as attempting to regain the country and that only he could stop our wicked plans.

Then the one man no one can accuse of being a colonial spoke out against him: Nelson Mandela. Follow this link and rejoice for Zimbabwe may be free yet.

My Degree, My Career

2008-06-20T12:18:00.000-07:00

I have just got my degree results, a 2:1 in Mechanical Engineering. I am really happy with this and can’t wait for graduation.

However, my first proper job come September will be as an accountant. Why have I spent 4 years and quite a lot of money gaining a masters degree and yet have then chosen to abandon engineering for accountancy?

My first though was money, but the pay is about the same between good engineering firms and good accountancy firms. Maybe working conditions were the reason, during the summer I spent in an accountancy firm I was sent from Cornwall to Heathrow, occasionally I would not get home till 7 or 8pm. Comparing this with the summer I spent in an engineering firm where I could always get home by 6pm and was able to work when I wanted to, the conditions at the accountancy firm were worse. (The accountancy firm was more fun, but more tiring as well!)

Then I hit on it: Respect. There is no respect for engineers in this country. I will expand on this point in a later post.

First Impressions

2008-06-18T16:12:00.000-07:00

Hi All and welcome to my blog. I have been thinking about starting this for a while, but never had the motivation to actually do it. Then I thought now or never, I have nothing to do so lets go.

This blog will be somewhere for me to let off steam, as well as giving what I hope are witty and intelligent observations on current affairs. These observation will probably seem to be misinformed and vaguely moronic, but aren’t we all at times.

I will also use this blog to give my thoughts on films, TV, sports and my other misadventures.

Here’s to everyone’s good health and I hope you enjoy the ride.