Sunday, 31 August 2008

A New Term

Well August is almost over. Soon politics will begin again, we have the conferences, the Autumn relaunch, Glenrothes and the Queen's Speech to look forward to.

Despite my less than accurate last prediction I will make some guesses at what will happen in the next few months.

Labour Conference - Outward show of unity, positive statements about Gordon from Miliband, Darling, Straw, Harman, but a rumbling discontent from the members and unions. Attempts to placate unions with new taxes and other measures, will show a few point benefits in opinion polls.

Conservative Conference - A very positive conference, the Shadow Cabinet will draw together, it does need to do anything or panic. A lead in the polls will be maintained.

Lib Dem Conference - Statements designed to appeal to Labour voters and the party will continue to position themselves to fight Labour in the North.

Brown's Autumn Relaunch - Will be successful for a few days, but not be as successful as required and rumblings will begin again. Either Miliband will go or there will be an obvious attempt to become PM.

Glenrothes By-Election - SNP win. They have had enough time to make themselves known and with continued bad news and Brown unpopularity I think the SNP will sneak it.

Overall I expect the position on January the 1st to be similar to now. Gordon Brown is PM, Tories at 40-45%, Labour at 25-30%, Lib Dems 15-20%, but the longer the polls stay like this the harder it is for Labour to recover.

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