Wednesday, 23 July 2008

Glasgow East – My Prediction

Tomorrow the year’s fourth by-election will be held in Glasgow East. The previous three have all been won by the Conservatives, this won is being held in the 25th safest Labour seat in the country. Last week I predicted the consequences of various results, in this post I will make my prediction as to the result.

Labour – 45% (-16%)
SNP – 35% (+18%)
Conservatives – 9% (+3%)
Lib Dems – 5% (-6%)
Greens – 2% (N/A)
Other – 4% (N/A)

Turnout 30%

I think Labour will hold on as the majority is too big, but the SNP will run them close, but not that close and achieve an impressive swing. I think the Tories will over take the Lib Dems due to the Tories improved poll standings and the decrease in Lib Dem support since 2005.

Turnout will be low for three reasons:
Low Turnout in 2005
Glasgow Fair
Normal By-election turnout fall.

There is a caveat to this that if the turnout is much lower the SNP may sneak it. We shall see tomorrow.

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