Wednesday, 16 July 2008

Consequences from Glasgow East

So far this year there have been 3 by-elections with a fourth coming up soon in Glasgow East. The previous 3 have all been won by the Conservatives in convincing fashion. In Crewe and Nantwich the party gained its firs by election seat for 26 year, as well as getting a net swing to the Tories against the Lib-Dems in the safe Conservative seat of Henley.

On the 24th of July there will be a fourth in Glasgow East. I am going to try to predict what the consequences of each result will be for each of the major parties. This not what I think will happen, but what the consequences of each likely result will be.

Labour - Majority
Greater then 10%. Brown safe and will have the summer to revitalise his government. The Tories and SNP would face difficult questions and have to rethink strategy. Alex Salmond in particularly will be under great pressure. SNP and Tories will suffer in the polls.

Labour - Narrow Victory. Brown will be under great pressure, maybe even a vote of confidence by Labour MPs. Tories will benefit in the polls

Labour - Loss. Brown will not be PM at the next election. Depending upon which party wins the leader will get a massive benefit and future opinion polls will show a move to that party from Labour.

SNP – Victory or narrow Defeat. Salmond Safe and gains at future general elections in Scotland. Polls will increase for SNP

SNP – Vote Decrease. Salmond will face great pressure and is unlikely to be SNP leader in the next elections.

Conservative/Lib Dem – Victory. Unthinkable, but if it happens Brown will be gone by conference season and Tories would make gains in Scotland at next general election.

Conservative – Beat Lib Dems. Moral boast for activist, Cameron can claim that to listening to the concerns of urban poor. Lib Dems will move even more from offence against Tories to defence. Nick Clegg will be under great pressure may even be replaced if defeat is to great

Conservative – Beaten by Lib Dems. As long as deposit kept Cameron should be ok. Tories have nothing to lose in this seat. The trouble will come from within the party, with discussions on moving back to “traditional” policies. Nick Clegg will be safe from threats.

I will publish my prediction as to the likely result early next week, should be an interesting result whatever happens.

No comments: